This year’s annual American Society of Hematology (ASH) meeting was primarily focused on the evolving treatment paradigm for newly diagnosed multiple myeloma (MM). Both Revlimid and Velcade presented strong data in this patient population which should boost the use of both drugs in front-line MM, but this is especially true for Velcade given the robust data from the VISTA trial.

Myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS) is another indication that received much attention at this year's meeting. Strong survival data were presented for Vidaza in these patients that should ensure an increase in usage of the drug in MDS patients. Incremental data were also presented for Revlimid and Dacogen which provide further support for their use in MDS patients. In contrast, the data for the oral formulation of Telintra was disappointing and suggests that the original data with the IV formulation of Telintra may have been due to chance.

Based on the totality of the data presented at the meeting, we have adjusted our MM and MDS revenue models. We are now projecting peak US revenue for Velcade in MM of $618.4 million, up from $482.0 million. We now project peak US revenue for Revlimid in MM of $1.4 billion, down from $1.46 billion and in MDS of $656.2 million, down from $756.9 million. We now project peak US revenue for Telintra in MDS of $688.6 million, down from $1.1 billion.

We now value Millennium’s 5-year pipeline at $11.10/share, up from $8.06/share. We now value Celgene’s 5-year pipeline at $58.06/share, down from $60.42/share. We now value Telik’s 10-year pipeline at $2.57/share, down from $4.83/share.

This report summarizes the conclusions from selected ASH events and also provides a list and link to all the ASH data events tracked by BioMedTracker. For the full report, please download the PDF version at the top of this page.

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