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(Data Shown as of 09/14/05)

  Amylin Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (AMLN)
 
Pipeline Valuation
Current Market Price: $31.16
Estimated Pipeline Value per Share: 2010 2015
At Enterprise Value/EBITDA of  25: 46.72 55.26
Probability Adjusted Revenue (M): 1664.1 3030.9
Estimated EBITDA (M): 447.0 1179.0
AssumptionsExplanation

(View 10 Year Revenue Outlook: U.S.   Worldwide)


Name Indication Phase Recent Event Likelihood of Approval Est. Approval Date Peak U.S. Revenue (M) Upcoming Catalyst
AC162352 Obesity I 10/20/04 25% (5% Above Avg.) 01/10 $ 416.3
AC2592 Congestive Heart Failure II 12/05/04 27% (3% Below Avg.) N/A N/A
AC3056 Coronary Artery Graft Restenosis I 06/11/02 25% (5% Above Avg.) 01/10 $ 7.3
Cardiovascular Disease I 06/11/02 25% (5% Above Avg.) 01/10 $ 20.6
Percutaneous Coronary Intervention Restenosis I 06/11/02 25% (5% Above Avg.) 01/10 $ 21.6
Byetta Diabetes Mellitus, Type II Approved 08/04/05 100% (Same As Avg.) 04/05 $ 897.5 10/01/05 - 12/31/05
Exenatide LAR Diabetes Mellitus, Type II II 08/22/05 55% (25% Above Avg.) 01/09 $ 4,007.7 Now - 06/30/06
Symlin (AC137) Diabetes Mellitus, Type I Approved 06/12/05 100% (Same As Avg.) 03/05 $ 24.7
Diabetes Mellitus, Type II Approved 08/04/05 100% (Same As Avg.) 03/05 $ 366.5 Now - 10/31/05
Obesity II 08/04/05 40% (10% Above Avg.) 01/08 $ 279.3 01/01/06 - 03/31/06

Biotechnology company focused on developing treatments for diabetes and other metabolic disorders. Amylin's diabetes care portfolio contains several injectable, non-insulin based hypoglycemic compounds that have generated compelling preclinical and clinical trial data. Amylin is poised to take advantage of the trend toward more aggressive anti-diabetic drug use and intensified screening of people at high risk for diabetes. This trend is prompted by the new guidelines from the American College of Endocrinology (ACE) and the American Association of Clinical Endocrinologists (AACE).

Amylin's pipeline should make it a strong player in the diabetes market, or a prime acquisition target for the existing leaders in this market. Amylin and Eli Lilly have recently forged one of the most progressive biotech / pharma deals ever, focusing upon commercial opportunities for AC2993.

 
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